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High inflation may force Gulf to halt fiscal stimulus
IMF - November 2010

 

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KUWAIT CITY (AFP) - A sustained high rate of inflation in some Gulf Cooperation Council states might force a halt fiscal stimulus as early as 2011, a senior International Monetary Fund official warned on Saturday.

"Comfortable fiscal and external positions permit most GCC countries to maintain fiscal stimulus in 2010 and into 2011 if necessary," John Lipsky, IMF first deputy managing director, said in a statement.

"However, in some countries we are seeing early signs of a pickup in inflation. If sustained, this may call for a withdrawal of stimulus as early as 2011," Lipsky said after a meeting with GCC finance ministers and central bank governors.

Lipsky said the outlook for GCC countries has improved considerably thanks to the ongoing global recovery and the stabilisation in oil prices.

Inflation in five of the GCC's six states soared to double-digit figures before the global financial crisis, but then eased. Qatar, for example, posted inflation of 15 percent before the crisis and deflation during it.

But in recent months, prices have begun to rise again, with Saudi Arabia hitting an inflation rate of more than five percent and Kuwait recording the highest inflation rate in 18 months in September at 5.3 percent.

The GCC states, which import almost everything, have blamed rising food prices for the current surge in inflation.

In its quarterly regional outlook released two weeks ago, the IMF urged the oil-rich Gulf states to raise spending in 2011 and maintain expansionary fiscal policy.

Several GCC countries were able to implement a financial stimulus in the wake of the global financial crisis that alleviated its effect on their economies.

Lipsky also said short-term challenges facing the GCC states "will be to support a revival in credit growth," which decreased sharply with the global downturn.

The IMF official also told reporters that relative stability in energy prices had a positive impact on the GCC economies and their recovery.

"We have seen a rebound in growth in the non-oil sector of the region's economy, and we think that is going to continue in 2011," he said.


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